Об оценке риска катастрофического спада в стохастических моделях экономического роста

Abstract

In the article stochastic models of economic growth under repetitive catastrophic risks are explored . The basic task of the article is a quantitative estimation of risk of catastrophic downturn in such models. As a measure of risk probability of production falling in percents to the initial level is taken. For this probability as a function of the degree of falling integral equalizations are derived, which are similar to integral equalizations of insurance mathematics and which are explored similarly.